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Introduction to El Nino - 07.13.04


Basic ideas about El Nino are given by Doc Weather to help you get acquainted. Then the planets are brought in for a unique view.


Fig.1


Fig.1

In order to understand the play of forces that make up El Nino events, the movement of the planets can be useful. To help begin a study of how planetary motions interact with El Nino as a climate event, the accompanying chart is provided by Doc Weather. The horizontal line in the middle of the diagram is the equator. The next lower line is the degrees of longitude with the dateline in the middle of the diagram. The next lower line is the climatic standard division of the Pacific with regard to the unfolding of El Nino / La Nina events. The lowest line of information is the division of the Pacific into regular 30° sections according to the terrestrial projection of the celestial equator onto the earth. This placement has arisen through observation of this area in the context of planetary motion studies.

After decades of observation it has become possible to link specific longitudes with specific motions of the planets. This study has been based on correlating the shifts in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) fluctuations over the Pacific in specific longitudes to warmth and cold fluctuations in specific time frames and then comparing these temperature shifts to the motion of planets over the Pacific. Seeing these planetary movements correlate to Sea Surface Temperature shifts over vast stretches of the Pacific Ocean engenders a sublime sense of the relatedness of all things and a new respect for cosmic parameters in our scientific researches.


Fig.2


Fig.2

To see the interrelatedness of these seemingly very different sets of forces it is necessary to have a picture of what climatologists call the canonical El Nino . This is a yearly El Nino pattern involving the migration of warm water from the western Pacific into the mid Pacific. This can be seen in figure 2. In short every year the western Pacific heats up and forms a pool of warm water near Indonesia during January to March. This warm pool then migrates to the east during the spring to end up at the dateline in June or July. The migration of the warmth pool to the east every year is known as the canonical El Nino. This happens most years with few failures.


Fig.3


Fig.3

Sometimes the warm pool of water surges past the dateline in the late summer and fall to arrive at the west coast of South America in December. (fig 1. 3) When this happens the surge of the canonical El Nino is known as an El Nino warmth event. El Nino warmth event is accompanied by devastating climate shifts that strongly effect global weather patterns. Often after an El Nino warmth event, the warm water in the Pacific goes away and an opposite cold pattern arises. During the cold events the canonical El Nino takes place in the western Pacific from January to May but at a very reduced level. During La Nina or cold events the Pacific stays very cool and even though there is fluctuation in SSTs during that time the whole Pacific is below average in temperature. These fluctuations are rhythmic in a general way.


Fig.4


Fig.4

To see more deeply into the fluctuation of these patterns it is useful to interface these rhythms with the rhythms of the planets moving across the Pacific. There are several recognizable patterns associated with these phenomena. The first is the canonical El Nino itself. If the retrograde motion period of a planet over the western Pacific were to be layered onto the canonical migration of the warmth plume from Indonesia (figure 1.4) it could be seen that any outer planet (Mars to Pluto designated by the letter A) in the longitude of Indonesia (115° E i.e. Leo astrologically) would go retrograde (move east to west) in January and direct (move west to east) in June. (fig 1.4) A planet in position B would go retrograde in February and direct in July. A planet at position C at the dateline would go retrograde in March and direct in August. This would support the motions of the canonical El Nino by bringing a surge of warmth into the dateline area in July and August of every year.

If there actually was a planet in position A, B or C then the canonical El Nino would find support for the buildup and delivery phase of the canonical El Nino in a given year. There would then be a surge of warmth at the dateline in time for the canonical El Nino to bloom into an El Nino warmth event. In such a case then there would need to be planets in the eastern Pacific in order to help the surge move across to the coast of South America. In this paper we will use the term surge to describe the occasional motion of the west to east warmth pool migration from the dateline in the fall of the year. This surge can be met in various ways depending upon the placement of other planets across the Pacific. If the surge is to be supported there are two variations of motions that can be observed. The first is the RX block .


Fig.5


Fig.5

The RX block is short for the retrograde block. This pattern occurs when the surge is met with the retrograde motion of another planet that intercepts the surge and amplifies it. (fig 5) This is a chart from 1985. The RX block of Mercury in Nino 3.4 in December formed a warmth spike in the mid Pacific in an otherwise cold year. An image of this can be seen in the motion of water in a bathtub. If you move your hand from one end of the tub to the other in a slow rhythmic way the water eventually begins to rhythmically surge back and forth from one end to the other in an oscillatory pattern. There is an ideal period for this motion that results in the water sloshing out of the tub on one end when the wave period is related harmonically to the dimensions of the bathtub. The surge of a rhythmic wave is an image that can be used to describe the surge of an El Nino during a canonical year.


Fig.6


Fig.6

If such a surging oscillatory wave is started and then, as it is pulsating from left to right or in direct motion , you put your hand in the middle of the tub and begin to push from right to left (retrograde) against the next cycle of the direct motion surge, strong peaks form from the resistance to the surging flow of the rhythmic wave. (fig 1.6) Areas of compression form in the top layer of the ocean. In these areas the energy of the surge is manifest in turbulent peaks. In hydrology this pattern is called chop. In the ocean when the canonical El Nino is rhythmically pulsing through the Pacific basin the yearly arising of the warmth in the west in the period from January to March and the slow west to east surge of the warmth to the dateline in July/ August is the dominant tempo. If a planet goes into retrograde motion somewhere between the warmth surge and the coast of South America then there has been observed a consistent and marked tendency for the SSTs in the longitude of the retrograde planet to rise. The rise in SSTs in the longitude of a retrograde planet is known in this paper as a warmth spike. When a number of well-placed RX blocks occur in a given year then there is great support in that year or in the next for El Nino events to occur. The compression of the chop is often accompanied by spikes in SSTs.


Fig.7


Fig.7

A more potent RX block pattern can arise when a transiting planet that has just gone into direct motion in a western position accompanies a surge. Then, the new forces of the direct motion amplify the surge momentum. This is especially potent when the amplified surge is met with an RX block to the east. The timing of RX and direct motions in the Pacific is prone to these types of events since the annual motion of retrograde to direct motion proceeds across the Pacific in a west to east direction. This can be seen in figure 7, a chart from the year 1989. When two planets are close enough in longitude for the direct motion supporting the surge to encounter the retrograde motion of a planet to the east then the surge is amplified much more than if it were a simple RX block. In this case we call the RX block a squeeze
.
A squeeze creates strong spikes in SSTs in the longitude between the two planets involved. In 1989 Pluto went direct (west to east) in July at the dateline and Mercury went retrograde (east to west) in western Nino 3.4 in September as Pluto was still moving from west to east. The result was a strong spike in SSTs in Nino 3.4 at that time. Such strong spikes in SSTs can occur during a particular year enhancing the quality and force of a surge that is underway. This was the case in 1989.


Fig.8


Fig.8

Accompanying a squeeze is another phenomenon that is also problematic in the onset of El Nino / La Nina conditions. When the squeeze is underway the areas to the west of the western planet often are the site of falling SSTs (figure 1.8). It is as if the compression forces of the squeeze focalize the warmth between the two squeezing planets at the expense of the areas adjacent to the squeeze. If too many squeezes generate warmth in one year then it appears as if a "scar" forms in the areas of the squeeze that supports the onset of the opposite conditions of cold in the next year. The placement of squeezes and RX blocks across the Pacific and the timing of them in the context of the canonical El Nino present a rich array of possibilities for modeling the rhythmic oscillation of El Nino and La Nina events. This type of pattern is especially evident in the unfolding of a classic El Nino.


Fig.9


Fig.9

In an El Nino the planets across the Pacific are positioned in such a way that their direct and retrograde motion allows the warmth surge to build up in the west early in the year and then as the western most planet goes direct the warmth surge moves eastward just in time to meet the next planet to the east just as it turns into direct motion. This was the case in the 1982-83 (figure 1.9)


Fig.10


Fig.10

It was also the case in the great El Nino of 1997/ 98 (figure 1.10). In those years the wave from the most westerly placed direct moving planets reached the more easterly retrograde moving planets just as they turned to direct motion. The result was unprecedented warmth surges in those years. Conversely, it is often the case that in La Nina years either the retrograde motion of Mars, Mercury or Venus interferes with the surge, and blocks in places and times that do not allow the surge to unfold in a rhythmic way.

In general the year after a strong El Nino the Pacific cools rapidly and unless there are more squeezes to push up the SST's in the proper rhythm the cooling dominates. It appears that this is the case most often when the Pacific transit of Mars is not happening. Every second year Mars is not present in the Pacific due to it's orbital periodicity. During the non-Mars years the Pacific surge does not find support in the Mars east / west transit during the winter. This is often a La Nina signal. If a non-transit period of Mars is accompanied by a lack of planets across the Pacific or the lack of planets at the dateline in midsummer or by the awkward placement of RX blocks that dissipate the surge from the dateline then cold conditions dominate.


Fig.11


Fig.11

It may happen, as it did from 1983 - 86 (figure 1.11 / 1984)


Fig.12


Fig.12

It may also happen again as it did in 1988-90 (figure 12 / 1989). During these years, the RX blocks of Mercury and Mars interfered with the canonical surge and very cool periods ensued. This happened when the RX blocks interrupted the flow of the east to west yearly surge of the El Nino. In 84 Mars retrograde at the dateline blocked the surge early in the year and Mercury retrograde in December blocked the surge late. In 1989 a Mercury block in September near Hawaii and a combination of Mercury and Venus in retrograde blocking in Nino 3 in December, prevented the warmth surge from entering the east Pacific.

It should be emphasized that in this system, the forces that create La Ninas are not essentially different from the forces that create El Ninos. The La Nina pattern still has retrograde motion as its fundamental principle but in La Ninas the motion is not syncopated to the rhythmic requirements of the canonical El Nino. In La Nina s the RX blocks and squeezes create a rhythmical damping or hindrance to the orderly procession of the warm water surge from west to east throughout the year. When they are out of synch to the canon, the orderly procession is interrupted. The energy of the surge is dissipated in the form of thermal chop and "scars". At these times the warmth is dissipated and cannot build a flow towards the east.

Doc Weather feels that a few years of observation of these patterns will most likely convince even the most skeptical reader of the accuracy of these relationships since they are so readily perceptible.